Jul. 7th, 2025 Option Outlook

Jobs Beat!

Good Morning! After a jobs beat, SPX advanced .8% to the major resistance at 6300.

The NFP report itself has had a declining response rate for years now, making these numbers a lot more volatile based on seasonal adjustment. The result is frequent revisions and three different reports with multiple surveys each (JOLTS, ADP, NFP) that don’t give a clear employment picture. There’s also a lot under the surface that indicate more uncertain economic conditions.

Meanwhile, on Sunday, the tariff deadline was walked back a bit to August with “final, final” tariff rate letters being sent to countries. This extends the pause for a bit. What kind of impact will that have going forward?

This week and next week are very strong positive vanna, but both have very large resistances at 6300. Especially with next week, I can see a little bit of a pop past 6300, but not too far. The 6000 support is now far below, but 6200 puts have been bought up a bit, creating some support below.

Overall, the vanna is very positive with positive gamma pushing back. I expect a slow rise with peeking past 6300 this week into next week. I’ll look at August expiration after this week is over.