Jan. 31, 2025 Options Outlook

The bullish trend continues

Good Morning! A decent continuation of the recovery headed towards 6100, closing 30 points up.

Even though we closed up, there was a massive late-day swoon with Trump mentioning tariffs again. Is this what we have to look forward to for the next 4 years? In his first term, he wasn’t taken seriously, but this term seems to be a different story. Has anything about the outlook changed for this week and next?

The short answer is no. We have been projecting a rebound to 6100 for the past week, and that is still the case. Next week looks similar to the one month as well. If there’s any downside, 6000 should contain it. If that breaks convincingly, 5880 is the next stop, but I don’t think there is even a catalyst from now until Feb opex that will change this except for Trump offhand comments. As for upside, we can peek a little above 6100, possibly up to 6125-6130, but that’s probably as high as we can go. A Feb opex condor should continue to pay nicely.