Aug. 4th, 2025 Option Outlook

Tariff Trouble

Good Morning! The tariff deadline came and went with Trump releasing his tariff rates that will take effect on Aug. 7th. The market dropped 1.6% in response.

While the drop was sudden, it was well overdue from an IV standpoint, and surprisingly, VIX spiked when the drop happened making Friday a vol event. This means we should see 6340 within 3 weeks, but I think we will see it sooner than that.

There have been a few questions about Volland, and why it is down. There are legal proceedings happening so I can’t give many details, but the short story is that one of our developers decided to use their access to try to extort money from us. When we refused, they shut down the link between our front end and back end. It is in emergency relief proceedings right now and should be back up in roughly a week and a half.

I’m saying this to dispel some rumors, but we aren’t going away. When we are back online, keep an ear out for the announcements that are coming. Also, because Volland isn’t up, we aren’t going to do a show this week. But we will be back when Volland is back.